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Ebook About Forecast geopolitics and markets with this clear and insightful resource Geopolitical Alpha – An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future provides readers with an original and compelling approach to forecasting the future and beating the markets while doing so. Persuasively written by author, investment strategist, and geopolitical analyst Marko Papic, the book applies a novel framework for making sense of the cacophony of geopolitical risks with the eye towards generating investment-relevant insights. Geopolitical Alpha posits that investors should ignore the media-hyped narratives, insights from "smoke-filled rooms," and most of their political consultants and, instead, focus exclusively on the measurable, material constraints facing policymakers. In the tug-of-war between policymaker preferences and their constraints, the latter always win out in the end. Papic uses a wealth of examples from the past decade to illustrate how one can use his constraint-framework to generate Geopolitical Alpha. In the process, the book discusses: What paradigm shifts will drive investment returns over the next decade Why investment and corporate professionals can no longer treat geopolitics as an exogenous risk How to ignore the media and focus on what drives market narratives that generate returns Perfect for investors, C-suite executives, and investment professionals, Geopolitical Alpha belongs on the shelf of anyone interested in the intersection of geopolitics, economics, and finance.Book Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future Review :
I read 50+ books a year, and I can unequivocally say that "Geopolitical Alpha" is one of the best I've read in 2020.Don't let the financial jargon ("alpha") in the title dissuade you: this is a great take even - perhaps especially - if you're not an investment professional. Papic's thought-provoking framework of analyzing constraints to predict policymakers' behaviors as well as geopolitical outcomes makes a ton of sense even to the layperson. It will be a very useful thinking tool to add alongside other mental models. But where the book truly shines in its' refreshingly humorous and unpretentious writing style. To wit: if you're not reading *every* footnote closely, you're missing out on some of the real magic in this book! Papic can write intelligently about Machiavelli, Marx, and the Miami Heat - all on the same page; that's no small feat. The final product is a refreshing mix of pop culture references (my Math “flex”) and just the right amount of finance jargon ("debt supercycle") to be both entertaining and erudite.In a time when a lot of books will be coming out to "explain" 2020 and its aftermath, arm yourself with a great bs detector or buy this thinking manual for your favorite contrarian or curmudgeon. It will be a Christmas present they won't return ~ The author was born in the former Yugoslavia and when it fell apart while he was a boy, his father accepted a job in Amman, Jordan. As he puts it; "Yes, you read that right. We ran away from war by going to the Middle East." Fn. pg.5. Since then he has lived in a number of places which, in my opinion, gives him perspective that I, and most others, don't have.His methodology is to look for constraints on policymakers, not policymaker preferences. He repeatedly cites: Preferences are optional adn subject to constraints, whereas constraints are neither optional nor subject to preferences. To employ the framework outlined by this mantra takes a lot of work. He argues that geopolitics is not a "nice to have", but rather is essential to much investing. The "alpha" refers to seeking excess returns in investing.His approach rests on three pillars. The first is a "materialist dialectic". Sounds communist. He cites Karl Marx as preferable to Machiavelli. The author is not a communist, but he seeks reality in constraints and Karl Marx is one of his muses - enjoy the ride. The second pillar is diagnosticity of constraints, which are observable and empirical. But you have to look for them and observe them dispassionately. The third pillar is to avoid sttribution errors by looking at the person in the situation, not just at the person. The person may do things that are contrary to preferences because of fundamental constraints, which override preferences.He applies this framework to politics, the economy and the market, geopolitics (waves that cross borders), legal constraints (generally weak, but sometimes decisive) and the effect of time on constraints (when preferences can "run out the clock"). He looks at the current COVID pandemic (the book was largely written during the first half of 2020) beginning at page 178 and following. He argues that people will lose their of COVID and society will reopen sooner than some elites would like. In March 2021 as write this, this may be happening now.In the chapter on The Wizards of Oz he observes that many "experts" who frequent the media are, in fact, not forecasting accurately. He gives examples. Why does he look at this? Because to find and understand constraints, one must look dispassionately at the world and put off ideological blinders (the author "bathes himself in nihilism"). Even very successful investors can be blinded by their political and ideological biases. The book aids in fighting these mental limits. The constraint framework gives an investor a way to look at the world and hopefully find ways to adapt and improve their returns.I have the hardback. I read it twice. I highly recommend it. Even if you are not an investor, his insights and methodology will aid you as you try to make sense of events in your home country and geopolitically. Read the book. 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